As he cruises toward another election “victory” on Friday, Vladimir Putin is increasing the frequency of his public appearances. (That’s probably relatively easy when all of your viable opponents mysteriously keep winding up dead.) This week he gave an interview to Russian state television and the subject of the Ukraine war inevitably came up again. Seemingly unprompted, Putin declared that he was “ready” to use nuclear weapons if he believed that there was any threat to “Russian statehood, sovereignty, or independence.” When the reporter asked if he was specifically considering using nukes in Ukraine, Putin vaguely responded in the negative. While this interview was broadcast on state television, Putin’s intended audience was clearly an international one. (Associated Press)
President Vladimir Putin said that Russia is ready to use nuclear weapons if there is a threat to Russian statehood, sovereignty, or independence.
Speaking in an interview with Russian state television released early Wednesday, Putin said he hoped that the U.S. would avoid any escalation that could trigger a nuclear war, but emphasized that Russia’s nuclear forces are ready for it.
Asked if he has ever considered using battlefield nuclear weapons in Ukraine, Putin responded that there has been no need for that.
Putin clearly isn’t worried about losing the upcoming election, nor is he likely worried about losing the war to Ukraine. Most of his primary internal rivals have mysteriously taken ill or suffered tragic instances of fatal defenestration. He probably feels that he’s comfortably back in the catbird’s seat after some uncertainty over the past twelve months. So on one level, his comments may have been intended to remind Russia’s citizens that he still considers his country to be a superpower that nobody should mess with.
At the same time, however, while Putin may be evil, he’s not stupid. He keeps tabs on world events and maneuvers to position himself as well as possible. The two primary audiences being targeted in those remarks are in Washington and at NATO headquarters. His first warning targeted the United States, not Ukraine when he said he “hopes” that the United States would avoid an escalation that could trigger a nuclear war. That’s the one thing he knows that everyone wants to avoid and he’s probably hoping that a nervous American public will apply pressure on Joe Biden to avoid turning up the temperature.
He also just witnessed the Swedish flag being raised at the United Nations and saw Swedish military forces preparing for joint military exercises for the first time in living memory. NATO has now fully encircled Russia’s western border with the exception of Ukraine and Balarus. (That’s one of the factors that drove the original invasion of Ukraine to begin with.) This declaration by Putin seems to be a sign of his obvious displeasure with the NATO situation. Russa may be outnumbered and outflanked to the West, but Vladimir Putin is unsubtly reminding all of the members of the alliance that his nukes can reach their capital cities and they can do so quickly.
Is that a course of action that Putin seriously desires or is planning? Almost certainly not. Again… he’s not stupid. Russia would be utterly destroyed in a full nuclear exchange. Unfortunately, they would take much of the rest of the world with them. So Putin probably isn’t crazy enough to do it, but it plays well to his advantage if the rest of the world is worried that he just might be that crazy.
Meanwhile, the West, unfortunately, jumped in right after the invasion and made it clear that we weren’t going to be sending in our military might to fight against Russia directly. Putin knows he doesn’t need to worry about any similarly nuclear-armed maniacs coming at him from the other direction. The Kremlin probably sees this as an ideal situation, allowing them to continue grinding Ukraine down without needing to worry about foreign troops marching on Moscow. This isn’t the first time Vladimir Putin has spoken publicly about the possibility of deploying nukes. You can rest assured it probably won’t be the last, either.
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