Israel will enter Gaza City sometime soon in an effort to destroy the “Gaza metro,” the hundreds of miles of underground tunnels where Hamas fighters hide and store weapons. One of the questions I’ve asked in the past week is why Hamas would invite such a devastating response from an overwhelming force. You have to wonder what they were thinking.
My own attempt to answer that question led me to the conclusion that Hamas probably wasn’t thinking very clearly at all, at least not in the way most military strategists think. Today, an Israeli expert on Hamas, Kobi Michael, gave an interview to CNN’s Peter Bergen about the conflict. Bergen asked what Hamas’ plan was with this attack and Michael’s answer was interesting.
Bergen: Why did Hamas launch this attack now?
Michael: What was the strategic aim of such an operation, considering that they knew for sure that the price tag would be very high and they were endangering their very existence? I’m sure that Hamas was sure that the shock and horror of this operation and the casualties that they would cause would be interpreted by all the Palestinians, that this was a sign from God that this was the time to open all the battlefronts and to fight Israel and this will be the end of the state of Israel. They were sure about it…
This attack last weekend was not intended to release Hamas prisoners held in Israeli jails. The objective was much bigger, and I think this was to encourage the Palestinians in the West Bank and all over Israel to open other battlefronts against Israeli targets…
We have to understand that Hamas are very religious people. They are very determined, radical and extreme, and therefore, it is very hard for Western people to understand that they believe that they will be able to collapse the state of Israel. But this is what they believe.
Hamas isn’t a group of strategic deep thinkers. They didn’t have a plan for what Israel would do in response if their attack was a success. Instead they were operating on a kind of revolutionary impulse. If they could strike Israel hard enough, other enemies of Israel would be encouraged to join in the battle and fight with them. The battle would continue until Israel was destroyed. Therefore Hamas would never have to worry about facing Israel’s counter-strike alone, at least not for long.
This doesn’t strike me as much of a plan, and yet it’s fair to say that Hamas really did inspire Israel-haters around the world to rally to their side. We’ve seen the protests here in the US in major cities and on college campuses alike. Lots of people have come out of the woodwork to minimize Hamas’ atrocities and blame Israel for the murders of their own civilians. The pro-Hamas protest in New York City was so extreme that even AOC felt the need to condemn it. The problem for Hamas is that none of their fans in academia will pick up a rifle on their behalf. The most they will do is sign a sternly worded letter.
Hamas was also counting on the millions of Palestinians who would serve as human shields for them, literally keeping their tunnels safe under a layer of innocent children. But that isn’t working out as they planned either since Israel has ordered civilians to move south.
Michael: The reason that Israel must bomb and demolish so many buildings is because Hamas is everywhere where their basic organizing rationale is to use their people as human shields. They do it in the most cynical and brutal manner, and they wish to have many casualties to use the international media and international tribunals in order to demonize Israel and gain empathy and support. It is the ultimate absurdity when those barbarians who do not respect any international law or norms are using these platforms to make their case. We have to clear the area and prepare the best conditions for the ground forces to enter to accomplish the mission to deal with all the underground infrastructure and to finish the job.
The real help Hamas was hoping for would need to come from Hezbollah in the north and there’s reason to think that won’t happen now.
Bergen: Do you think Hezbollah in Lebanon will stay on the sidelines during this war?
Michael: It looks like now they have an interest in staying out of a full-scale war, because Israel is on full alert in the north. And now Israel is a wounded lion. They know that the Israeli retaliation will be very aggressive if it comes to a full-scale war. I don’t think that they are interested now in a full-scale war.
Simply put, Hezbollah is watching what is about to happen to Hamas and they don’t want any part of it. Not to mention that there will soon be two US aircraft carriers sitting off the coast of Israel and that’s another inducement not to escalate a fight they can’t possibly win.
The surge of fighters that Hamas imagined would destroy Israel has not materialized. They are going to face the fury of the wounded lion on their own.
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