The stopgap spending bill passed last night failed to include any additional money for Ukraine, sending a clear signal that at least some people are questioning just how long we’re going to be expected to continue funding this proxy war. But in the UK, they seem to be moving in the opposite direction. They have a new Defense Secretary there now named Grant Shapps, and he has instructed their military to prepare to shift some British troops into the country for the first time. He would also like the British defense industry to begin building new factories in Ukraine. We’re not yet being told what sort of troops will be deployed, specifically where they might be stationed, or what they would be doing. But it certainly sounds like a move that the Russians could interpret as being provocative at a minimum. (Telegraph)
British troops will be deployed in Ukraine for the first time under plans being discussed with military chiefs, the new Defence Secretary has disclosed.
In an interview with The Telegraph, Grant Shapps said that he had held talks with Army leaders about shifting an official British-led training programme “into Ukraine” rather than relying on UK and other Nato members’ bases. He also called on more British defence firms to set up factories in Ukraine.
Following a trip to Kyiv last week, Mr Shapps also revealed that he had talked to Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian president, about how Britain’s Navy could play a role in defending commercial vessels from Russian attacks in the Black Sea.
So it would appear that Shapps is talking about shifting some of the training operations for Ukrainian fighters out of the UK and into their own country. That might make sense in terms of logistics and supply lines, but it will also increase the chance that the British troops might be brought into direct conflict with the Russians. He’s also talking about sending British warships to the Black Sea to defend Ukrainian shipments from the Russians. I don’t see how they can manage that without directly attacking some Russian naval vessels if push comes to shove.
As far as asking the British defense industry to start building factories there, I suppose that might make the Russians happy. They’ve been running out of places to blow up this year. They’ll be less happy with Shapps’ announcement that he wants to help Ukraine “shape up” for NATO membership. That possibility was one of the chief drivers leading Putin to invade in the first place.
Even the Telegraph describes all of this as “a significant escalation” of Britain’s involvement in the conflict. Granted, it’s nothing that the United States hasn’t already been doing, but a growing multinational Western presence inside the country is only going to put Mad Vlad even more on edge. And now that he has firmed up some arms supply deals with his new buddy in North Korea as well as his drone suppliers in Iran, that might not be the most productive strategy at this point.
I will give Shapps credit for pushing his own government to increase their military spending to 3% of the UK’s budget. That’s something Trump was pushing them to do and it’s long overdue. But the rest of these plans seem needlessly aggressive. Normally, I would sit back and simply leave it to the Brits to do as they see fit with their own troops and finances. But this situation is simply different. We’re in a mutual defense pact with the British and the rest of NATO. If the Brits get drawn into open combat with the Russians and they are attacked, the rest of us are obligated to go fight the Russians on their behalf. Clearly, this is what Zelensky has been hoping for from the beginning, but it would almost certainly be an unmitigated disaster. I’m pretty confident that we could defeat Russia if we had to, but the damage and the death toll would be staggering. And if Putin feels pushed into a corner and desperate, I somehow doubt he would hesitate to break out some of the five to six thousand nuclear weapons he has and go out with a bang.
The rest of NATO used to consult with the United States before making any big moves. Is that not a thing anymore? Did anyone from Great Britain even try talking to the Biden administration first, or is it just not worth bothering these days? In any event, this is just one more pot on the stove for us to keep an eye on going forward.
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