Chalk this up to Joe Biden’s “confusion,” as Jazz wrote about yesterday, or to his lifelong habit of flat-out lying for self-aggrandizement. Perhaps Biden is “winning” every poll in his own fantasy world, but in reality, he’s in trouble — and Democrats know it.
Now that the smoke has cleared on both sides of the aisle, the two major parties will deliver precisely what almost no one wanted: a rematch of 2020. But contra Biden, he’s on the losing end of voter frustration in most polls, although he refuses to admit it (via Power Line):
FULL VIDEO:
REPORTER: “What’s your message to Democrats who are concerned about your poll numbers?”
BIDEN: “My poll numbers? The last five polls you guys don’t report. I’m winning — five! Five in a row!” pic.twitter.com/Mz5gWQMRSA
— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) March 5, 2024
Five in a row, eh? Over at FiveThirtyEight, Biden hasn’t won five general-election polls in the past month. The three he did win were the most recent TIPP and Morning Consult polls, both by a single point over Trump (virtual ties, in other words), and a +7 over Haley Beacon Research poll that put Trump over Biden by two.
It’s just as grim at RealClearPolitics, where the poll listings are a little easier to follow. To chalk up five polling wins for Biden, even of the +1 variety, you have to count back to January 29th’s Quinnipiac poll. In that same period of time, however, Trump has led in twenty general-election polls. And they’re not putting him up against Dean Phillips, either.
RCP’s aggregate averages have Trump up two points, 47.5/45.5. The latter figure is a bad number for an incumbent, especially when pitted against someone whose personal popularity is, shall we say, limited. But even that’s not as bad as the trending in polls, captured in this RCP chart:
Trump got a big boost last spring in GOP primary polling thanks to the indictments that started appearing as he campaigned, a trend much noted by analysts. However, it’s clear that the boost applied to his general election standing as well, and except for brief moments in late spring and early fall, Trump has outpolled Biden for a while — and he’s getting stronger while Biden flounders. And now that Nikki Haley has thrown in the towel, Trump can probably expect a boost again as the GOP unifies behind him. Biden’s had almost unified Democrat support all along, and … it’s not helping.
So what could help? Biden got that much correct — the media. Of course, in this instance Biden wants the reporter to report on the polling that exists entirely in Biden’s head, but Biden knows he can count on the media to help amplify his anti-Trump panic pornography. Chuck Todd wonders when Team Biden will start giving media outlets the Preferred Narratives, in fact, and suggests that they could have a serious impact on polling:
The real question, of course, is which negative attacks will actually stick in the minds of voters who aren’t hard partisans and aren’t predisposed to assume the worst about both candidates. What we do know is that these swing voters don’t like former President Donald Trump’s personality or character and they are concerned about Biden’s physical abilities (which may also really mean they have a confidence issue in Vice President Kamala Harris).
The next six weeks should tell us a lot about how much a paid anti-Trump media campaign can move Biden’s numbers. Given the financial advantage Biden enjoys over Trump, it would be malpractice if the Biden campaign didn’t try to press that advantage immediately. Right now, this campaign has a “referendum on Biden” vibe to it, a fairly natural occurrence at this point in an incumbent’s re-election effort. The challenger — in this case Trump — is the one constantly on the trail and in the news, and his victories are giving him a bit of a “winner’s” halo effect that many a presumptive nominee has enjoyed.
Ahem. The Protection Racket Media coverage of Trump does not involve halos of any kind. Media coverage of Trump has been relentlessly negative for years and has only grown more intense since the Iowa caucuses made clear that he’d sail to the nomination. Since then, the media has tried tossing out narratives about white supremacy, including a laughably idiotic “Christian nationalism” narrative, more “insurrection” arguments, and attempts to rehab the “Russia collusion” hoax.
And yet, none of it has slowed down Trump’s polling momentum, probably because voters think the media’s just as desperate as Biden.
However, it’s a good reminder of the political and media environment we face in 2024. The Protection Racket Media will keep ramping up their wild attacks not just on Trump but on voters and anyone to the right of Rashida Tlaib to rescue Biden from accountability. We need to make sure that independent voices can still speak out to dissent from the progressive orthodoxy, point out the lies from the Biden administration and media, and discuss topics Big Tech wants suppressed.
Help HotAir tell the truth about the 2024 election as the left-wing, mainstream media propagandists do all they can to support the Democrats. Join HotAir VIP and use promo code 2024 to get 50% off a VIP membership!
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