A handful of House seats currently held by Democrats could flip in the 2024 elections, giving Republicans a potential sigh of relief as they seek to build on their slim majority.
All 435 seats in the House are up for grabs this cycle amid the GOP’s fight to pick up seats in districts that favor right-wing candidates. That fight will likely take place in districts that were won, or narrowly lost, by Republicans in recent elections.
Republicans currently hold a 218-to-213 majority in the chamber. Amid the resignations and departures by several Republicans from the House in recent months, that number is expected to fall even further on April 19, when Wisconsin GOP Rep. Mike Gallagher, the chairman of the House select committee on China, leaves Congress.
The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election analyst, currently ranks 11 Democrat-held seats as “Toss Up” races this cycle. Several of those races also include districts won, or nearly won, by former President Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential election.
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Of the many races, here are six House seats currently held by Democrats that could flip in 2024:
Maine’s 2nd Congressional District
Rep. Jared Golden, D-Maine, is looking to continue his representation of Maine’s 2nd Congressional District — a position he has held since 2019 — in the state’s November election.
Two Republicans are running in the state’s June 11 primary election, which uses a ranked-choice voting method, to challenge Golden — Maine state Rep. Michael Soboleski and Austin Theriault, a former NASCAR driver who also serves in the state House.
Once characterized by Politico as one of the “Trumpiest seats” for Democrats to defend, the district categorized as a “Democrat Toss Up” by the Cook Political Report covers four-fifths of the state, including the cities of Lewiston, Bangor and Auburn.
Despite the odds that are reportedly stacked against him in terms of voter demographics, Golden, a Marine Corps veteran who has bucked his party on a number of issues in recent years while serving as a co-chair of the Blue Dog Coalition, has won the seat three times — in 2018, 2020 and 2021.
Ohio’s 9th Congressional District
Currently represented by longtime Rep. Marcy Kaptur, Ohio’s 9th Congressional District is a seat that Republicans are looking to pick up in the state’s 2024 election.
Kaptur, a Toledo native who has represented the recently redrawn Ohio district in the House since 1983, is currently the longest serving woman in the history of Congress.
But that could all change later this year as Kaptur, whose votes align with President Biden’s interests nearly 100% of the time, plans to face off against Derek Merrin, her Republican challenger in the race.
Merrin, who was endorsed by Trump just prior to the state’s GOP primary election last month, currently serves as a state representative. He previously served as a councilman and as mayor of the City of Waterville.
The race has been labeled by the Cook Political Report as a “Democrat Toss Up” in 2024.
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Pennsylvania’s 8th Congressional District
In Pennsylvania’s 8th Congressional District, Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright is looking to retain his post in the House.
Cartwright has voted nearly in lock-step with Biden since assuming office in 2019, giving Republicans who have largely focused on the economy and other topics like immigration and crime something to talk about.
Though the primary elections in the state won’t take place until April 23, Cartwright, the presumed nominee for his party, is likely to face off against Rob Bresnahan Jr., the sole Republican challenging him.
Bresnahan has served as the chief financial officer and CEO of a family business, an electrical contracting company, since the age of 16, and his website states that he is “uniquely qualified to send a jolt of energy through Congress and deliver results” for the residents of Northeastern Pennsylvania.
The race has been labeled by the Cook Political Report as a “Democrat Toss Up” in 2024.
Washington’s 3rd Congressional District
Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, D-Wash., also co-chair of the moderate Democrats’ Blue Dog Coalition in the House, is seeking re-election to the House after serving a single term in office representing Washington’s 3rd Congressional District.
Perez is running in a race that has been labeled by the Cook Political Report as a “Democrat Toss Up” in 2024.
Perez, who was first elected to the House in 2022, is one of five candidates who will take part in the state’s nonpartisan primary election on August 6.
The current Republican candidates looking to unseat the congresswoman include U.S. Army veteran Joe Kent, who ran against Perez in 2022 and narrowly lost, as well as Leslie French and Leslie Lewallen.
Kent, according to his campaign website, is “focused on restoring common sense Republican values and defeating the woke extremist Democrat Congresswoman Marie Perez.”
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Alaska’s At-Large Congressional District
Alaska Rep. Mary Peltola, the first Democrat to represent Alaska’s at-large congressional district in nearly 50 years, is hoping to earn the support of Alaskans through its ranked-choice voting method later this year.
Peltola, who was elected to serve a full term in the House in 2022 and has worked to portray herself as a moderate ever since, previously served for a decade as a member of the Alaska state House.
An Alaska native, Peltola is now gearing up for a political showdown for the Last Frontier as she prepares to take on Republican candidates Nick Begich and Nancy Dahlstrom, the state’s current lieutenant governor, in Alaska’s August 20 primary election.
Peltola, who also serves as a co-chair of the Blue Dog Coalition, has faced criticism from her GOP challengers for failing to vote in favor of the interests of Alaska residents.
“We like Mary as a person, but we don’t like her voting record. She’s not speaking for Alaskans,” Dahlstrom told Fox News Digital earlier this year.
Similarly, Begich told Fox that “voters are furious” with the way Peltola has represented Alaska on the federal level.
Michigan’s 7th Congressional District
Another House seat, Michigan’s 7th Congressional District, is an open seat that many in the political sphere are paying close attention to after incumbent Rep. Elissa Slotkin, a Democrat, announced in February 2023 she would run for the Senate seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Debbie Stabenow, D-Mich.
The district — which includes the counties of Branch, Eaton, Hillsdale, Jackson and Lenawee, as well as large portions of Calhoun and Washtenaw counties — was narrowly lost by Trump during the last presidential election.
Two former Michigan state senators, Republican Tom Barrett and Democrat Curtis Hertel Jr., are running to represent the district in the state’s 2024 election.
The race is labeled a “Democrat Toss Up” by the Cook Political Report.
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Though not as competitive, according to Cook Political Report ratings, Republicans are also eyeing Virginia’s 7th Congressional District, where more than a dozen Republicans and Democrats are seeking their respective parties’ nomination for the seat in the state’s June 18 primary elections.
Former U.S. Army Special Forces Green Beret and combat veteran Derrick Anderson is the leading Republican in the race and has received endorsements from House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., and several other members of GOP leadership in the House.
The Virginia seat is currently held by Rep. Abigail Spanberger, a Democrat who announced in November her decision to run for governor of the state in 2025. The seat has been ranked as a “Lean Democrat” by the Cook Political Report.
Despite the potential pick-up opportunities for the GOP in the House, several Republicans, many of whom represent districts won by President Biden in 2020, could be in jeopardy of losing their seats in the lower chamber later this year.
Similar to that of current Democrat-held seats that could flip, the Cook Political Report currently ranks 11 GOP-held seats as “Toss Up” races this cycle.
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