Out: Full withdrawal before any hostage releases. In: Women released … and then a full withdrawal. And also still in: a 1:10 ratio of hostages to Palestinian prisoners in Israel, with a nearly 1:1 ratio for those serving life sentences for murder.
What a deal. It does, however, mark at least somewhat of a shift in Hamas’ position since the last deal in November. Israel’s war cabinet is already meeting to discuss it:
The cabinet will convene Friday at noon and discuss the response of Hamas, which this evening officially submitted its response to the mediating countries, according to Israeli media.
According to the announcement published by Hamas, the deal was intended to allow the return of the residents of Gaza to their homes and the withdrawal of the IDF from the Strip.
Qatar sent Israel an official letter via Hamas detailing the Gaza terror group’s demands as part of the Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal, KAN News reported on Thursday night.
The Israeli cabinet doesn’t have much choice but to at least be seen as taking this seriously. It’s the first change in position from Hamas in months, at least one they’re officially acknowledging, and the government is under tremendous political pressure to cut a deal to get the hostages home. Add to that the international pressure on Israel, especially from the US, to rescue Joe Biden from Dearborn, and at all adds up to a mandate to observe the forms of consideration.
What specifically is the offer? It does provide an up-front release of some hostages, unlike Hamas’ earlier positions, but otherwise the demands are the same:
Hamas said the initial release of Israelis would include women, children, the elderly, and ill hostages, in exchange for the release of 700-1000 Palestinian prisoners, according to the proposal. The release of Israeli “female recruits” is included.
According to the latest proposal, Hamas said it would agree on a date for a permanent ceasefire after the initial exchange of hostages and prisoners, and that a deadline for an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza would be agreed upon after the first stage.
The group said all detainees from both sides would be released in the second stage of the plan.
In other words, Hamas still wants Israel to withdraw with Hamas in nominal control of Gaza. The irony of Hamas’ demand for a “permanent ceasefire” cannot be overstated either, since Hamas has never considered any ceasefire with Israel to be permanent. Hamas has violated every ceasefire agreement they have made, including the ceasefire in place on October 7 when they massacred 1200-plus Israelis, most of them women and children.
So how seriously will the unity cabinet take these minor concessions? We already have an answer, of sorts:
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has approved the plans for a military operation in Rafah, the Prime Minister’s Office announced on Friday.
The IDF is preparing for the evacuation of the civilian population, the statement added.
This offer appears to be nothing more than a minor concession aimed at manipulating public opinion to regain leverage over the Israelis. It’s a pretty common negotiating tactic — maintain unreasonable/impossible demands for a period of time, then make a minor concession and watch everyone fall all over themselves to reward it. Not to go all Godwin on this, but Hitler used this technique on Western countries repeatedly and to great effect, especially in Munich during the Czechoslovakian crisis. It has been a common Hamas technique as well, and it has usually worked … until October 7.
Apparently, the Israelis have learned a lesson about Hamas manipulation:
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejects the latest proposal put forward by Hamas for a release of hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners and a truce, saying their demands “are still absurd.”
Netanyahu’s name will get attached to this decision, but the actual leadership process is more of a consensus than a single point of decision. Netanyahu had to concede some control of these decisions to form a unity government under his direction, so Benny Gantz and Yoav Gallant have to reach agreement with Netanyahu before implementing any policy decisions. That’s what Chuck Schumer and the Biden White House either don’t know or choose to ignore; it’s not Netanyahu who’s a stumbling block to their plans, but the broad consensus of Israel’s political class, and of Israelis altogether.
The Israelis are through accepting security assurances from thousands of miles away while living with Hamas’ constant attacks and bombardments from next door. They’re acting for their own survival, and the US keeps making it more and more necessary with Biden’s funding of the Iranians that control Hamas and Hezbollah. And speaking of which: Why is Chuck Schumer demanding regime change in Jerusalem and not in Tehran?
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