As somebody who has either studied or worked in politics for most of my life, I am not much of an elections guy.
Sure, I know as well as anybody else that elections don’t just matter; they are the defining moments that determine all the policy decisions I care so much about. My interest in politics is driven by my concern for the culture and for the future of the country. That’s why, even during campaigns, my role was speechwriting and research, not campaign strategy.
So here I am on Super Tuesday writing about the horserace. I will try to keep it interesting if nothing else. My comments will appear below the selected results:
CA US Senate Primary
CA US Senate Special Primary
Two Senate Races get special attention: Texas and California.
California doesn’t look to be too competitive in the primary on the Democrat side; Adam Schiff is the likely Democrat candidate for Senate in California. But the primary process in California isn’t divided by party, so the question becomes whether Katy Porty will be on the ballot or Republican Steve Garvey. Schiff wants to run against a Republican, obviously, rather than a fellow Democrat to whom he could plausibly lose.
In Texas, the competitive race is on the Democrat side, with a moderate and a liberal Democrat fighting to challenge incumbent Ted Cruz. NBC says:
Democrats believe the state is trending in their direction and they argue that Cruz is vulnerable, especially after he won re-election in 2018 by just 3 percentage points. But that was a banner election year for Democrats, and Cruz faced a historically well-funded candidate in Beto O’Rourke.
Democratic Rep. Colin Allred is viewed as a strong recruit, and he’s led the primary field in fundraising and public polling. But if he falls short of the majority-vote threshold Tuesday, he’d head to a May 28 runoff against the second-place candidate.
That’s expected to be state Sen. Roland Gutierrez, who has cast himself as the true progressive in the race and has built a national profile as a vocal gun control advocate following the mass shooting at Robb Elementary School in Uvalde, which is in his district.
In Alabama, there is an incumbent vs. incumbent race among Republicans after a redistricting court decision changed the lines. It pits Jerry Carl and Barry Moore against each other in AL-1. It is a deep Red district, and the winner of the primary will be the winner of the seat.
It is also a proxy war between more moderate donors and the Freedom Caucus. It will be an interesting race to watch.
In the 26th District in Texas, a GOP-held seat has opened up due to a retirement, and there is a lively battle brewing there.
TX US House GOP Primary
Again, NBC’s analysis is:
GOP Rep. Michael Burgess’ retirement opens up this ruby-red north Texas seat. The Republican primary features some notable candidates, including Brandon Gill, a 29 year-old businessman and activist whose father-in-law is far-right activist Dinesh D’Souza, and John Huffman, mayor of Southlake, a town at the center of a fight over critical race theory.
The race has attracted outside groups’ attention with some GOP megadonors funding two super PACs targeting Gill, who is backed by Trump and Cruz. Gill has also had air cover from a group tied to the Club for Growth. This race could head to a runoff because of the crowded field.
Katie Porter’s now open House seat, the 47th Congressional District in California, is actually a competitive district. She won by only 4 points last election, and with an open seat it is possible that a Republican might squeak back in if the stars align. Definitely a race to watch.
CA US House Primary
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